HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0718

Time	Data and Events	Importance
07:30	Japan’s June Core CPI Year-on-Year	★★★
14:00	Germany’s June PPI Month-on-Month	★★★
16:00	Eurozone’s May Seasonally Adjusted Current Account	★★★
20:30	US June New Housing Starts Annualized	★★★
	US June Building Permits Total	★★★
22:00	US July One-Year Inflation Rate Expectation Preliminary Value	★★★
	US July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preliminary Value	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Short-term Rebound	96-97	99.5-100
Gold	Volatile Rebound	3300-3320	3380-3400
Crude Oil	Short-term Adjustment	64-65	79-80
Euro	Volatile Pullback	1.1520-1.1550	1.1700-1.1720

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operations is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In June, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, and uncertainty in the economic outlook has somewhat diminished, with the unemployment rate at a low level and a stable labor market. In June, non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, lower than previous values and expectations, indicating a robust labor market. The core PCE price index rose slightly in May; the ISM Manufacturing PMI in June saw a slight increase, and the June CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, showing moderate inflation in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index has recently continued its rebound trend, closing with a bullish candle on the daily chart, with a strong performance in the short term. However, it faced resistance and retreated during the night session, with potential selling pressure near the upper resistance level, while there is also support below. The probability of maintaining a volatile rebound trend in the short term is relatively high. Overall, the larger structure shows a weak volatility trend, with a slowing decline, entering a rebound phase in the short term. The upper resistance area is around 99.5-100, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Short-term rebound, with a strong performance in the short term; be cautious of the upper resistance level.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operations is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, with conflicts between Israel and Iran, and instability in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision marked the seventh consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, while lowering inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision maintained rates, with slightly high inflation levels and a stable labor market, indicating two rate cuts within the year according to the dot plot. In June, the US non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, both slightly better than expected; the June CPI year-on-year showed a slight increase, in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices showed a volatile performance during the day, with a slight pullback to the support area during the night session, not breaking down significantly, but there is also selling pressure above. In the short term, it may continue to show volatility, with bulls slightly favored, and attention should be paid to whether the resistance level can be broken. In the larger cycle, the daily chart shows high-level volatility, with prices fluctuating back and forth. The upper resistance level is around 3380-3400, while the lower support level is around 3300-3320.

Viewpoint: Volatile rebound, with bulls slightly favored; pay attention to whether the resistance level can be broken.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operations is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the July EIA monthly report, the forecast for this year’s crude oil prices was slightly raised; in the OPEC monthly report, June production saw a slight increase, maintaining the global oil demand growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this and next year. At the beginning of July, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, with expectations for another increase in September, and discussions will be held to pause the increase starting in October. As of the week ending July 11, EIA crude oil inventories saw a significant decrease, with recent data showing large fluctuations that may affect the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil futures rose slightly overnight, with the daily line closing with a bullish candlestick. The price tested the support area without a significant breakdown, indicating possible stabilization in the short cycle. Short-term traders can consider low-buy opportunities and take profits on highs. Overall, crude oil is in a support area with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to signs of stabilization at a larger level. The upper pressure area is around 79-80, while the lower support area is around 64-65.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment, with possible signs of stabilization in the short cycle; consider low-buy opportunities on pullbacks.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operations is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the June interest rate decision by the European Central Bank, rates were cut by 25 basis points for the seventh consecutive time, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with no discussion on neutral rates. The inflation forecast for this and next year was lowered, along with the GDP growth forecast for next year, as trade upgrades led to slower economic growth and inflation. In June, the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate decision, with a robust labor market, slightly higher short-term inflation, and reduced economic uncertainty, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts within the year. The Eurozone’s June manufacturing PMI slightly missed expectations, with not much difference.

Technical Analysis:

The euro continued its weak adjustment yesterday, with the short cycle hitting a new low. It approached the support area below and saw a significant rebound, but there was also selling pressure above. The probability of maintaining a volatile pullback in the short term is high, and traders can consider short opportunities during the day, taking profits in a timely manner. Overall, after a significant rise in the previous market, it has entered a short-term adjustment, with daily fluctuations trending downward. The upper pressure area is around 1.1700-1.1720, while the lower support area is around 1.1520-1.1550.

Viewpoint: Volatile pullback, consider short opportunities on rebounds, and take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operations is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.